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December 15, 2006

November Rally Conspiracy Theory

posted by MR WAVETHEORY at 12/15/2006 04:13:00 PM
Jeffrey Saut from Raymond James has an interesting conspiracy theory on why the US market rallied into the US election in November. The tools:

1) Reindexing of the GSCI Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (NYSE GS) by Goldman Sachs Group Inc
2) Department of Energy's decision not to add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserves
3) Relaxation of margin requirements by the SEC

This, ladies and gentlemen, has not been the case recently as the averages have "unnaturally" vaulted higher without so much as ANY correction. We have suggested this phenomena was triggered by Goldman Sachs' re-weighting of its much institutionally indexed commodity index last July. Why Goldman would mysteriously reduce the weighting of gasoline from 7.3% to 2.5%, in a gasoline-centric economy, and stage those reductions incrementally right into the November elections is a mystery to us, but there you have it.

Following that, the Department of Energy mysteriously said it would not add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) until after the winter months, even though the SPR was below prudent norms. This is also a mystery to us, but once again there you have it. Then, when it looked like the equity markets were set-up to correct (read: decline) in mid-October, the NYSE petitioned the SEC, and was granted, a mysterious reduction in margin requirements for an already over-margined hedge fund community. And that "mysterious surprise" gave the major market indices another leg-up (read: re-rally). Again, why in the world one would introduce more leverage into an already over-leveraged hedge fund community is a mystery to us! Also mystical is why every time the equity markets look like they are set up for a downside correction, do "buyers from Mars" appear in the futures markets to prevent a decline? We have documented such occurrences in past missives where those "mysterious buyers" have shown up at 6:30 at night and "bid" the S&P 500 futures from 1375 to 1397 (or +22 points)in a mere two minutes, but that is a discussion for another time.
Amusing!

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