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August 31, 2006

Follow-up: Tivo

posted by Robson Lee at 8/31/2006 02:54:00 PM
Following up on yesterday's Tivo article, I noticed that the stock went up 0.59 to close at 8.25 today, but the bigger news is that over 5000 September '06 calls were transacted today. It seems that someone out there is expecting some bigger moves to come and soon.

While I applaud the optimism of the move, I think that Tivo is a long-term play. The losses can't be stemmed for another couple of years if ever. As Eric Savitz points out, "the company came up far short of expectations in adding new subscribers, which is a troublesome trend." The revenue sharing agreements and rebates offered to customers are a substantial burden on Tivo's revenue stream, but they are a necessary cost to expand market share so we won't see an end to them soon. The question is: can Tivo survive long enough to reap the rewards of its long-term, slow-and-steady strategy?

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